The Impact of Informal Economy on the Interest Rate Pass-through: Evidence from an ARDL model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61538/ajer.v5i2.430Abstract
In this study, we investigated the impact of the size of the informal economy on the interest rate pass-through. Results from an ARDL model showed that higher levels of the informal sector are associated with higher lending rates. Furthermore, the results indicated that the effect of the informal economy is much stronger in the long-run compared to the short-run. Finally, the results indicated that in both the short run and long run existence of an informal economy dampens the transmission of changes in the policy rate to retail rates as expected from theory and empirical evidence.References
Bernanke, B. S. 1986. ‘An Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation’. In: K Brunner and Meltzer, A. eds. Real Business Cycles, Real Exchange Rates, and Actual policies. Amsterdam: Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy no. 25, 49-99.
Bhattacharya, R., I. Patnaik, and A. Shah. 2011. Monetary policy transmission in an emerging market setting. IMF working paper no. 11/5.
Cagan, P. 1958. ‘The Demand for Currency Relative to the Total Money Supply’, Journal of Political Economy, 66(3): 302-328.
Carpenter, S. 1999. ‘Informal Credit Markets and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Evidence from South Korea’, Review of Development Economics, 3(3): 323-335
Castillo, P. and Montoro, C. 2010. ‘Monetary Policy in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets’, Central Bank of Peru Working Paper no. 2010/009.
CSO. Zambia Labour Force Surveys of 2004, 2008, and 2012.
Engel, R. and Granger, C. 1987. Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing, Econometrica, vol. 55(2), 251-276.
Gregory, A. & B. Hansen. 1996. Residual based co-integration tests in models with regime shifts, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 70, 99-126.
Enders, W 2010, Applied Econometric Time Series (3rd ed.). New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.
Favero, C. A. (2001). Applied Macro-econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Hernandez, M. 2005. ‘Estimating the Size of the Hidden Economy in Peru: A Currency
Demand Approach’, available online at http://www.um.edu.uy/docs/5.pdf
Kolev A., Jesus, E., and Morales, P. 2005. ‘Monetary Policy and the Informal Sector’, Department of Economic History working Paper no. 75/2005: University of Barcelona: Available online at http://www.bcv.org.ve/Upload/Publicaciones/wpaper75.pdf
Mishra, P., P. Montiel, and A. Spilimbergo. 2012. Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries. IMF Economic Review, vol. 20, 270-302.
Ouattara, B. (2004). Modelling the Long Run Determinants of Private Investment in Senegal. CREDIT Research Paper No. 04/05.
Ononugbo, M.C. (2012). Monetary Policy in Developing Countries: The Case of Nigeria. (Unpublished PhD Dissertation). Leeds University Business School, Leeds.
Pesaran H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3), 289-326.
Phiri, S. and Kabaso, P. 2012. Taxation of the informal sector in Zambia. ZIPAR working paper no. 5/2012.
Tahir M. N. 2012. Relative Importance of Monetary Transmission Channels: A Structural Investigation; A case of Brazil, Chile, and Korea. University of Lyon Working paper Series. Retrieved from http://ecomod.net/
Tsay, R. S. 2005. Analysis of Financial Time Series. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.
Schneider, F. 2010. ‘The Shadow Economy and Work in the Shadow: What Do We (Not) Know?’ IZA discussion Paper no. 6423