The Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy on Real Variables in Namibia

Authors

  • Tafirenyika Sunde
  • Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61538/ajer.v4i1.455

Abstract

The study develops a small macroeconometric model for Namibia by using labour market and monetary variables for the period 1980 to 2013. The study shows the process through which monetary policy affects real (labour market) variables. Using the structural vector autoregression methodology (SVAR), a small macroeconometric model is developed using three modular experiments, namely; the basic model, and models that incorporate demand and exchange rate channel variables to the basic model and specification of the macro-econometric model. The study finds that demand and exchange rate channels variables have important additional information, which explains the monetary transmission process and that shocks to labour market variables affect monetary policy in Namibia.

Author Biographies

Tafirenyika Sunde

P. O. Box 26925, Windhoek, Namibia/Polytechnic of Namibia, 13 Storch Street, Windhoek, Namibia. Tel: +264813711879. Email: tsunde@polytechnic.edu.na, sunde08@gmail.com, Tafirenyika Sunde is a PhD Student at the University of South Africa. The paper is taken from the author’s PhD thesis. Reference to the main document may be mentioned when necessary.

Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi

Associate Professor of Economics at University of South Africa. Tel: +27124334637. Email: akanboa@unisa.ac.za

References

Ajilore, T., Ikhide, S. (2013) “Monetary policy shocks, output and prices in South Africa: A test of policy irrelevance proposition,†The Journal of Developing Areas, 47,.363–386.

Alexius, A., Holmlund, B. (2007) “Monetary policy and Swedish unemployment fluctuations,†CESifo Working Paper.

Algan, Y., Cahuc, P., & Zylberberg, A. (2002). “Public employment and labour market performance,†Economic Policy, 17(34), 7-66.

Amisano, G., & Serati, M. (2003). “What goes up sometimes stays up: shocks and institutions as determinants of unemployment persistence,†Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 50(4), 440-470.

Amisano, G., Giannini, C. (1997) Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics, Springer Publishing House, Berlin.

Angeloni, I., Kashyap, A.K., & Mojon, B. (2003). Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area: a Study by the Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network, Cambridge University Press.

Baffoe-Bonnie, J., Gyapong, A.O. (2012). “The dynamic implications for wage changes on productivity, prices, and employment in a developing economy: A structural VAR Analysis,†The Journal of Developing Areas, 46, 397–417.

Berkelmans, L. (2005). Credit and Monetary Policy: An Australian SVAR, Reserve Bank of Australia, Research Discussion Paper

Bernanke, B.S., & Mihov, I. (1998) The liquidity effect and long-run neutrality, In CarnegieRochester conference series on public policy, 49, 149-194. North-Holland.

Brischetto, A., Voss, G. (1999). A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia. Citeseer.

Broadberry, S.N., & Ritschl, A. (1995). “Real wages, productivity and unemployment in Britain and Germany during the 1920′ s,†Explorations in Economic History, 32(3), 327-349.

Brüggemann, R. (2006). “Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis,†Empirical Economics, 31, 409–431.

Carlin, W., Soskice, D. (1990). Macroeconomics and the Wage Bargain: A Modern Approach to Employment, Inflation and Exchange Rate. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Carstensen, K., & Hansen, G. (2000). Cointegration and Common Trends on the West German Labour Market, Empirical Economics, 25(3):475-493.

Christiano, L.J., Eichenbaum, M., & Evans, C.L. (1999). “Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?â€. Handbook of macroeconomics, 1, 65-148.

Christiano, L.J., Eichenbaum, M., & Evans, C.L. (2005). “Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy,†Journal of political Economy, 113(1), 1-45.

Christiano, L.J., Gust, C., & Roldos, J. (2004) “Monetary policy in a financial crisis,†Journal of Economic theory, 119(1), 64-103.

Christoffel, K.P., & Linzert, T. (2005) “The role of real wage rigidity and labour market frictions for unemployment and inflation dynamics,â€

ECB Working Paper No. 556

Disyatat, P., Vongsinsirikul, P. (2003). “Monetary policy and the transmission mechanism in Thailand,†Journal of Asian Economics, 14, 389–418.

Dolado, J.J., Felgueroso, F., Jimeno, J.F. (1997). “The Effects of Minimum Bargained Wages on

Earnings: Evidence from Spain,†European Economic Review, Vol. 41, Issues 3–5, 713– 721

Dolado, J.J., Jimeno, J.F. (1997). “The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach,†European Economic Review, Vol. 41, Issue 7, 1281–1307

Duarte, R., Marques, C.R. 2009. “The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Wages and Prices in the United States and the Euro Area,†European Central Bank Working Paper Series No. 1067.

Dungey Y,M., Pagan, A. (2000) “A structural VAR model of the Australian economy,†Economic Record, 76, 321–342.

Dungey, M., Pagan, A. (2009) “Extending a SVAR Model of the Australian Economy,â€

Economic Record, 85, 1–20

Enders, W. (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series, Second Edition. ed. John Wiley and Sons, United Kingdom.

Fabiani, S., Locarno, A., Oneto, G. P., & Sestito, P. (2001). “The sources of unemployment fluctuations: an empirical application to the Italian case,†Labour Economics, 8(2), 259289.

Faust, J., Leeper, E.M. (1997). “When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?†Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 15, 345–353.

Fonseca, J.R. (2008). “The application of mixture modeling and information criteria for discovering patterns of coronary heart disease,†Journal of Applied Quantitative Methods, 3, 292–303.

Fragetta, M. (2010). Monetary policy and identification in SVAR models: A Data Oriented Perspective, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20616/1/MPRA_paper_20616.pdf

Fragetta, M., Melina, G. (2011) “Identification of monetary policy in SVAR models: a dataoriented perspective,†Empirical Economics, 1–14.

Gambetti, L., Pistoresi, B. (2004) “Policy matters: the long run effects of aggregate demand and mark-up shocks on the Italian unemployment rate,†Empirical Economics, 29, 209–226.

Garratt, A., Lee, K., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. (2003). “A Long run macroeconometric model of the United Kingdom,†The Economic Journal, 113, 412–55.

Jacobson, T., Vredin, A., & Warne, A. (1997). “Common trends and hysteresis in Scandinavian unemployment,†European Economic Review, 41(9), 1781-1816.

Karanassou, M., Sala, H. (2010) “Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?†Economic Record, 86, 185–209.

Linzert, T. (2001). Sources of German Unemployment: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model, ZEW Discussion Papers. No. 01-41

Maidorn, S. (2003). “The effects of shocks on the Austrian unemployment rate–a structural VAR approach,†Empirical Economics, 28, 387–402.

Marcellino, M., Mizon, G. (1999) “Modelling Shifts in the Wage-Price and UnemploymentInflation Relationships in Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom,†Bocconi University, IGIER Working Paper.

Marcellino, M., Mizon, G. (2001). Small system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994, Journal of Applied Econometrics Special Issue in Memory of John Dennis Sargan (1924-1994), 16, 359–70.

Marques, C.R. (2008). “Wage-Price Dynamics in Portugal’, Wage Dynamics Network,†Working Paper Series October. Paper No. 945.

McHugh, Z. (2004) A Small Macroeconometric Model of the Australian Economy: with Emphasis on Modelling Wages and Prices, PhD, Queensland University of Technology, Australia.

Morsink, J., Bayoumi, T. (2001). “A peek inside the black box: the monetary transmission mechanism in Japan,†IMF Staff Papers, 22–57.

Ngalawa, H., Viegi, N. (2011). “Dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks in Malawi,†South African Journal of Economics, 79, 224–250.

Ngalawa, H. (2010). Essays on the Monetary Economics of Low Income Countries, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.

Ravn, M.O., & Simonelli, S. (2007). “Labour Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States,†The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 109(4), 743-777.

Robalo Marques, C., Martins, F., Portugal, P. (2010) “Price and Wage Formation in Portugal,†European Central Bank Working Paper Series No 1225

Sims, C.A., Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W. (1990). “Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots,†Econometrica, 58, 113–44.

Watzka, S. (2006). Dynamic Beveridge and Phillips curves: A macroeconometric Analysis of the US Labour Market, PhD Dissertation, European University Institute.

Downloads