The Causal Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Performance in Tanzania
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61538/ajer.v4i1.464Abstract
The study employs cointegration, vector error correction model and Granger causality test to ascertain causation between financial development and economic performance in Tanzania. Economic performance is measured by the real GDP, whereas proxies for financial development are: the ratio of money supply to nominal GDP; and growth of credit to private sector. The results show that there is a stable long-run relationship between financial development and economic performance in Tanzania. Granger causality test indicates that the causality runs from financial development to economic performance.References
Abu-Bader, S. and Abu-Qarn, A. M. (2005) Financial development and economic growth: time series evidence from Egypt, http://in.bgu.ac.il/en/humsos/Econ/Working/206.pdf
Abu-Bader, S. and Abu-Qarn, A. M. (2008) “Financial development and economic growth empirical evidence from MENA countries,†Review of Development Economics, 12(4), 803 – 817.
Agbetsiafa, D. K. (2003). “The finance growth nexus: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa, International,†Advances in Economic Research, 9, 172—189.
Agbetsiafa, D. (2004). “The finance growth nexus: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa,†Savings and Development, 28(3), 271-288.
Akinboade, O. A. (1998). “Financial development and economic growth in Botswana: a test for
Causality,†Savings and Development, 22(3), 331-348.
Akinboade, O.A. (2000). “The relationship between Financial Deepening and economic growth economic growth in Tanzaniaâ€, “Journal of International Developmentâ€, 12(7), 939-950.
Amusa, H.A. (2000). Financial International and Economic Growth: The case of South Africa, University of Pretoria South Africa.
Ang. B. J. and McKibbin, W. J. (2005) “Financial liberalization, financial sector development and growth,†Finance and growth: Institutional considerations and causality. University of East London, Department of Economics Working Paper.
Aziakpono, M. J. (2003). Financial development and economic growth in Southern Africa, National University of Lesotho, Department of Economics Working paper.
Bank of Tanzania (2011). Tanzania’s Fifty Years of Independence (1961-2011): A Review of Political and Economic Performance. BOT mimeo.
Darrat, A. F. (1999). Are financial deepening and economic growth casually related? Another look at the evidence. International Economic Journal, 13(3), 19 -35.
Dematriades P. O. and Hussain, K. A. (1996). Does financial development cause economic Growth? Time series evidence from 16 countries, Journal of Development Economics, 51, 387 - 4.
Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057 – 1072.
Egbetunde, T. (2009). Financial intermediation and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa (1980-2005). M. Sc. thesis, Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria.
Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction representation estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 252 —276.
Ghali, K. H. (1999). Financial development and economic growth: The Tunisian experience. Review of Development Economics, 3(3), 310-322.
Greenwood, J., and Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial development, growth and the Distribution of income. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 1076-1108
Gujarati, D. (1995). Basic econometrics. New York: Mcgraw-Hill.
Hussein, K. A. 1999. Finance and growth in Egypt. University of Kent, Department of Economics Canterbury CT2 7NP.
Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference integration with application to demand for money. Oxford, Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169 – 210.
Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda, Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688-726.
Levine, R. (2003). More on finance and growth: More finance more growth? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 85, 31-46.
Loayza, N., and Ranciere, R. (2002). Financial development, financial fragility, and growth, Central Bank of Chile.
Mohapi, P.L., and Motelle, S.I. (2007). The finance-growth nexus in Lesotho: causality revelation from alternative proxies. Tydskrif Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 31(3), 43-59.
Odhiambo, N. M. (2004). Is financial development still a spur to economic growth? Causal evidence from South Africa, Savings and Development, 28, 47-6.
Odhiambo, N. M. (2007). Supply-leading versus demand-following hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Three SSA Countries, African Development Review, 19(2), 257–280.
Pagano M. (1993). Financial market and Growth: An Overview. European Economic Review, 37(2), 613-22.
Patrick, H.T. (1996). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped Countries, Economic Development and Cultural change, (14), 174-18.