Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Agricultural Exports in Tanzania
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61538/ajer.v3i2.472Abstract
This study examines the nature and direction of causality in Tanzania between economic growth and agricultural exports along with some selected variables such as labour force and domestic investment. The analysis for this study was carried out using time series data for the period of 1980 to 2013. The data series were tested for stationarity using Phillips-perron test and the results revealed that they were all stationary and integrated of order one I(1). The Johansen test of cointegration revealed that there are cointegrating vectors in the system. The Granger causality test results revealed no any support of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Tanzania. However, the growth-led exports (GLE) hypothesis for Tanzania was supported by the results of this study, implying that the government of Tanzania needs to promote growth in order to generate exports.References
Acaravci, A., & Ozturk, I. (2012). Foreign Direct Investment, Export and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From New EU Countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting – 2/2012 , pp. 54-67.
Al-Yousif, Y.K. (1999). On the role of exports in the economic growth of Malayasia: A multivariate analysisi. International Economic Journal, Vol 13 , 67-75.
Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and Economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of Development Economics , 181-189.
Castro–Zuniga, H. (2004). “Export-led Growth in Honduras and the Central American
Region†Thesis, Louisiana State University [Available online at
http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-12032004-070104]
Dreger, C. (2011). A further examination of the export-led. Oder: European University Viadrina Frankfurt.
Emilio, J. (2001). Is the export led growth hypothesis valid for developing countries? A case of Costa rica. Geneva: United Nations Conference on Tradeand Development.
ESRF. (2009). Growth sectors and growth drivers: A situational Analysis report. United Republic of Tanzania.
Feder, G. (1983). On exports and economic growth:. Journal of development economics, Vol 112 , 59-73.
Giles, J. and Williams, C.L. (2000). “Export Led Growth: A survey of Empirical Literature and some Non-causality results†part 1. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 9(3) , 261-337.
Henriques, I. and Sadorsky, P. (1996). "Export-Led Growth or growth-Driven Exports? The canadian Case". The Canadian Journal of Economics Vol 29, No.3 , 540-555.
Hernandez, A.R. (2011). Can Asians Sustain an Export-led Growth strategy in the Aftermath
of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration: available online [Available online at http://www.adbi.org/workingpaper] Retrieved April Saturday, 2012
Keesing, D.B. (1967). Outward-looking policies and economic development. Economic Journal 77 , 303-320.
Krueger, A. (1985). The experience and lessons of Asia super exporters. In Corbo, V., Krueger, A.O. and Ossa, F.(eds). Eport-oriented development strategies: The Successof Five Newly Industrialized .
Manzoor, H. (2009). Causal relationship between exports and Agricultural GDP in Pakistan. Submitted for Second International Economics Conference (Faculty of Business, Economics & Policy Studies, University Brunei Darussalam).
Merza, E. (2007). Oil exports, Non oil Exports and Economic growth: Time series analysis for Kuwait 1970-2004. Kansas: Kansas state University.
Mishra, D. (2009). The Dynamics of Relationship between exports. International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research 4 (2): 53-70.
Narayan, P., & Smyth, R. (2008). Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: new evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks. Energy Economics, 30 , pp.2331–2341.
Odhiambo, N. M. (2009). Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach. Energy Policy, 37 , pp.617-622.
Shombe, N.H. (2008). “Causality Relationships between Total Exports with Agricultural and Manufacturing GDP in Tanzania†Institute of Development Economies, Discussion paper No. 136
Sinoha-Lopete, R. (2006). "Export - Led Growth in Southern Africa." Thesis, Lousiana State university.available at [http://etd.Isu.edu/doc/available/etd-12032004-070105] Retrieved on 10 may 2012.
UNCTAD. (2002). Policy issues in international trade and commodities study series no 19.
UNCTAD. (2007). Handbook of Statistics. Geneva: United Nations.
URT. (2000). Tanzania Agriculture: performance and strategies for sustainable Growth.
URT. (2001). Agricultural Sector Development strategy. Dar es salaam.
URT. (2009). Tanzania National Export Strategy, To sustain development and wealth creation through export-led growth in line with MKUKUTA goals and cluster strategies.
