Determinants of Oilseed Export Performance in Tanzania: The Case of Sunflower Seed

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of sunflower export performance in Tanzania over the period 1990–2023, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)–Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture both short-run and long-run effects among macroeconomic, production capacity and trade liberalisation. The empirical results indicate that foreign direct investment (FDI) is the only factor with effects in both periods; a positive and statistically significant effect in the short run and a negative effect in the long run. Meanwhile, production quantity and world prices affect export performance only in the long run, with positive and negative effects, respectively. Based on these findings, the study recommends strengthening production capacity through the adoption of improved seed varieties and the introduction of irrigation schemes to ensure stable output. It also emphasises directing FDI into agro-processing and export value chains to enhance value addition and competitiveness, alongside investing in storage and processing infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses. Furthermore, given the negative influence of world prices, the study recommends establishing price stabilisation and risk management mechanisms such as improved market information systems, forward contracts, and export price monitoring to help producers and exporters mitigate adverse global price fluctuations and enhance the stability of export earnings.